According to the IGC, the total grain (wheat and coarse grains) production in the period 2022/23 was 2.248 million tons, which is a decrease of eight million tons according to the November Grain Market report. Total consumption decreased by nine million tons compared to January, and with larger opening stocks, the end-of-season turnover figure (the sum of the relevant local marketing years) increased by two million tons to 579 million, this figure is still the smallest in eight seasons. Total trade is seen as 407 million tons, similar to last month, down 4 percent year-on-year (y/y).
The Council's initial forecasts for 2023/24 include a slight increase in the world corn harvest area, while the barley October area is seen lower. Given the uncertainty about agricultural activities in uncontrolled regions, the figures for Ukraine are unclear, but temporarily it seems that the region has fallen sharply on an annual basis. The world wheat outlook is in the direction of shrinking supply, and with general consumption tending to increase, stocks are expected to contract.
Especially due to the harvest forecast in the USA and the reduction of expectations in Argentina, the world soybean production in 2022/23 is seen as 378 million tons, which is a decrease of seven million tons compared to the previous month. The net decrease in supply is reflected in the downward outlooks for consumption and inventories, but both continue to increase on an annual basis. Although trade is estimated to be 1 million tons lower, volumes will still be 7% higher year-on-year. preliminary estimates for 2023/24 predict that the world harvest area will expand by two percent annually, including increases from leading exporters.
While the 2022/23 expectations for world rice production were unchanged from the previous month, stocks were slightly increased to 170 million tons (179 million) due to the reduced consumption outlook due to the downgrade of India's rating. December January/December world rice trade may decline from the previous year's record level in 2023 due to rising international prices and reduced crops in some important exporters, but it is expected to remain well above average thanks to India's strong exports.
Especially with the increase of the figures related to China, the 2023 trade increased to about 52 million tons despite a decrease of 6% year-on-year. It is estimated that the world harvest area will recover during 2023/24 and expand at an annual rate of one percent, including increases in Asia and the Americas. With mixed changes among commodities, the IGC Cereals and Oilseeds Index (GOI) Decelerated by one percent compared to the previous month and by two percent compared to the previous year.
Grain production will fall
After four consecutive years of growth, global cereal production is estimated to fall by 42 million tons in 2022/23, due to a decrease in corn and sorghum production more than an increase in wheat, barley and oats production. Despite the Decaying feed and industrial intake, world stocks are expected to contract by another 18 million tons and contract for the sixth consecutive time on an annual basis. Total trade is expected to fall to its lowest level in three years, with widespread declines in the main cereals products. With high yields in Brazil and increases in small producers, global soybean production is projected to peak in 2022/23 with an annual increase of 6%. While the increased purchase of soy products is seen to support record use, moderate inventory accumulation is expected, although exporters' reserves remain historically tight. Trade is forecast to increase by seven percent to 167 million tons, while Brazilian exporters will increase their share of demand as other suppliers make fewer shipments.
Due to the smaller crops of important producers, global rice production is seen to be falling at an annual rate of two percent. Due to the end of COVID-19-related food safety measures in India and a possible reduction in China, consumption may fall by six million tons annually, while inventories are shrinking.
Source: Milling and Grain
